It's the Bullpen, Stupid

In my last post (two weeks ago...yikes), I talked about the Indians hitters and their inability to produce so far this season. I also said the bullpen was the other major problem with Cleveland's 2008 team. Today, I'll take a closer look at where and why this part of the team has struggled.

Bullpens are the most volatile group of players on a team from year to year. A bullpen can be ineffective one season and bounce back to be quite good the next, despite few changes. A good example of this is the 2005 Chicago White Sox who won the World Series thanks to ridiculously dominating relief pitching that a year earlier (with the almost the same staff) was average at best.

Much like the 2005 White Sox, the 2007 Indians bullpen was outstanding last season led by setup man Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt's numbers in '07 might have been the best ever for a relief pitcher. He finished with 79.1 innings pitched, 80 strikeouts, nine walks, a 1.47 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and a 5-1 record.

This season Betancourt is a major reason the Tribe bullpen is statistically the worst in the American League. Betancourt has a 2-3 record with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio. His Value Over Replacement Player is -3.3.

Cleveland shouldn't have expected Betancourt to reproduce his 2007 season again this year. But nobody thought anything close to this collapse was even a remote possibility.

Betancourt isn't the only reliever who's regressed this season. Rafael Perez had a 1.78 ERA last season as the primary lefty setup man. This year his ERA has climbed to 3.62 and he's allowing more than one hit per inning. Opponents hit a paltry .187 against Perez in '07, but are now batting .270 against him this season. While Perez does have a VORP of 5.2, he hasn't been nearly as effective in '08.

Besides the Rafael's struggles, the Indians sorely missed closer Joe Borowski for much of the season with an arm injury. While many Cleveland fans (including me) thought the injury would be a blessing in disguise because Betancourt would get to close, it turned out to be a disaster. Not only did Betancourt implode as the closer, the Indians had no other solid options to pitch the ninth. Now that Borowski is back in his closer's role, the Tribe should actually feel more comfortable. This is ironic since Borowski has a -3.7 VORP so far this season.

For the Indians to have a chance in the Central Division, they obviously need the bullpen to improve. It doesn't have to be as good as last year's version. That's not realistic. But the relief corps must be an effective unit and so far in 2008 they've been sub par. With the bats still struggling (although showing some life the past 10 days), Cleveland can't afford to give away leads late in the game. They simply don't have enough offensive firepower to overcome the bullpen's mistakes.

The next three to six weeks will be telling for Cleveland. They must decide whether to be buyers or sellers at the all star break, and specifically whether it's more beneficial to trade C.C. Sabathia or keep him for the remainder of the season in hopes he leads the team to the playoffs. If the bullpen continues to falter, it's likely Cleveland will be selling come July 31st.

Offensive Struggles

The Cleveland Indians starting rotation posts the Major League's lowest ERA and highest SNLVAR (SNLVAR is a Baseball Prospectus stat that tells us the wins above replacement pitcher, or in this case staff, with offensive and defensive factors eliminated).

Yet the Tribe is just 25-29, five games behind Chicago and losers of seven of their last 10 games. Despite the starting pitching giving the Indians not just a chance, but a great opportunity to win each night, Cleveland finds itself struggling in the middle of the Central Division.

The problem is two-fold -- a struggling bullpen and an anemic offense. I'm going to discuss the latter today because it appears to be the most serious and potentially long-term problem for the 2008 season.

Cleveland's offense is ranked 23rd in runs scored, 25th in on-base percentage and an embarrassing 29th in team batting average, which at .234 is one point above dead-last Washington. It has just two players, Grady Sizemore and Ben Francisco, with EqBA (equivalent batting average) above .252.

Victor Martinez is hitting .294, but has yet to hit a home run. Travis Hafner (.217), Jamey Carroll (.231), Jhonny Peralta (.233), David Dellucci (.229), Casey Blake (.218) and Ryan Garko (.228) are among the worst collection of hitters in the league right now, at least according to batting average. Blake hits ninth in the order most nights and is tied for the team lead in RBI with 29.

How is Cleveland's offense this bad? For starters, the better hitters in the lineup have underperformed thus far. Martinez and his lack of power has been the primary reason Cleveland is the only team in the Major Leagues without a home run from the cleanup spot. Hafner is making last season look like the new norm instead of an aberration. Even Sizemore is struggling to keep his average about .260 and just recently began showing his power stroke.

With those three struggling, the Indians need the remaining guys to pick up the slack. Unfortunately, the other six hitters plus the bench guys are bringing the Cleveland offense down even more. Specifically, the biggest problem is that Cleveland gets very little production from first base and both corner outfield positions. These three spots in any team's lineup are almost always held down by very solid, productive, power hitters. In the Cleveland lineup, those positions are currently filled with Garko (.228, 4 HR, 20 RBI), and a combination of Franklin Gutierrez (.236, 3 HR, 18 RBI), Dellucci (.229, 5 HR, 16 RBI) and the semi-productive Francisco (.310, 2 HR, 12 RBI).

While opponents trot out first basemen and corner outfielders with high averages or good power or a combination of both, the Indians' bats barely register as above Triple-A level. Those are three huge holes in a lineup where the best three hitters aren't hitting. And that's how you get an offense that's minutely better than the Washington Nationals.

For the Tribe to contend this season, they almost certainly have to grab another bat. Colorado's Garrett Aktins name has surfaced as a potential offensive piece as has Pittsburgh's Jason Bay. Both would be a wonderful addition to the middle of the current order.

But beyond trading for another bat, Cleveland also needs everyone -- someone -- to simply start hitting. The Indians have already wasted far too many outstanding pitching performances because the offense couldn't muster three runs. While it's likely Sizemore and Martinez will find their stroke, other guys like Dellucci and Garko are closer to platoon players than starters on most teams. How much can we really expect offensively from Carroll or Gutierrez? Perhaps hitting coach Derek Shelton needs to try a different approach with his hitters. It's obvious that something needs to change soon.

We're about 1/3 through the season and Cleveland has two glaring weaknesses in its bullpen and offense. While the starting pitching continues to be amazing, this team can't consistently win with no relief pitching and no hitting. I'm not as concerned about the bullpen now that Joe Borowski is back as the closer and the relievers can settle into their normal roles.

But when I look at this offense, I struggle to see where the runs will come from. Besides Sizemore and Martinez, the Indians have a bunch of hitters who have never really been outstanding on a consistent basis. If the bats can't get better soon, Cleveland will continue to find itself in deep trouble in the Central Division.

Pronkless

From 2004 to 2006, Travis Hafner absolutely mashed the ball. He got on base. He drove in runs. He hit for power. He scared the crap out of opposing pitchers.

He was one of the most dominant hitters in the game.

But things changed in 2007. Hafner scuffled most of the year, but still finished with 24 home runs, 100 RBIs and a very good .385 on-base percentage. Many people thought 2007 was simply a mirage.

It might be a new reality.

Heading into Tuesday's game against the White Sox, Hafner has fewer home runs than Rickie Weeks. He's driven in just 20 runs. He's only scored 17 runs and is batting a measly .228. Worse yet, Hafner's not even drawing walks as his on-base percentage is an ugly .335.

What's happened to the Travis Hafner that used to punish the baseball on a nightly basis?

Travis Hafner stats:

Year							H	2B		HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005							148	42		33	108	79	123	.305	.408	.595	1003
2006							140	31		42	117	85	111	.308	.423	.659	1082
2007							145	25		24	100	102	115	.266	.385	.451	836
2008							31	8		4	20	20	36	.228	.335	.375	710

Look at the contrast between Hafner's power numbers in '05 and '06 compared to '07 and the start of this season. His on-base plus slugging went from among the league leaders to a very mundane 836 last season and a downright awful 710 this season. His average hit the tank and his slugging dropped off. Scary trends for anyone, especially a DH.

Year						ISOP	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%
2005						.290	13.7%	21.3%	.348
2006						.351	17.8%	19.7%	.326	40%	20%
2007						.185	17.6%	17.0%	.298	48%	19%
2008						.147	14.0%	22.0%	.281	44%	21%

Perhaps part of the reason for Hafner's decline is that when he's hitting the ball, it's not going for hits near as much as in past seasons. Some of this BABIP regression could be that Hafner isn't driving the ball to the gaps as much. Or maybe the shift that opposing defense use (putting three infielders on the right side) has stopped a few hits from going through. This theory seems unlikely as teams have played the shift on Hafner for several seasons.

I thought that Hafner would be striking out at a greater rate than previous seasons, and he has so far in 2008 (22.0%). But surprisingly, Hafner actually posted his best strikeout/walk ratio of his career in 2007 by walking more than he struck out.

One difference I do see is Hafner's ground ball ratios. Last season he continued hitting line drives at about a 20% clip which was in step with his career marks. But he hit a lot more ground balls last season (48% in '07 from 40% in '06) and has continued to do so this season (44%). With Hafner's lack of speed, most ground balls are going to become outs. If his line drives are staying the same and he's increasing his ground balls, it's apparent Hafner is failing to elevate the ball. This might explain the power drop as it's hard to hit a home run when you don't hit the ball in the air as much.

The good news for Hafner is that he's had a much better May than April. He's got the OBP up to .422 this month and he's hitting .268 compared to .208 in April. So there's certainly hope Hafner will turn it around. But as for explaining what Hafner is doing different mechanically, not even the Cleveland coaches know. From watching him fairly often this season, he seems to fall behind quite a bit in counts which would force him to swing at less than optimal pitches later in at-bats. This in turn could lead to more choppers on the infield and less power to the gaps. Still, it's hard to tell exactly what's bothering Pronk.

It's still early, so it'll be interesting to look back on Hafner's stats in July or August and see the difference. For now, I'm like every other Cleveland fan and have no idea why Pronk has slumped so hard and fast. I just hope he finds his swing sooner than later.

The Indians offense has struggled all season and Hafner has been a big part of the problem. If Cleveland is going to seriously contend for the World Series, the team needs to improve the offense. With few other consistent power options in the lineup, the pressure falls on Pronk to find his old self.

Seriously, What's Going On With Cliff Lee?

Cliff Lee didn't get the win against Toronto Monday night, but he did go nine innings, striking out five and allowing zero runs. The outing lowered Lee's WHIP and ERA to 0.67 each. Lee has now thrown up a goose egg in 50 of his 53 innings pitched this season and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 44/4.

All this from a guy who had to earn his spot in the rotation in spring training.

So, after a seventh straight quality start, Lee's performances beg the question, how exactly is he doing it?

Let's look at some numbers and then attempt to find any reasons for Lee's success.

First, Lee is throwing more strikes than ever before, but not by a huge amount. He's thrown 68% of his pitches for strikes, compared to a previous high of 66% in 2005 and a career average of just under 65%.

Lee's BABIP has always been around the league of .300 with a career low of .282 in 2005. It was .300 in 2006 and .304 in 2007. This season it's a measly .226. That means the Indians defense has been playing very well behind Lee and he's also been lucky. This was certainly the case Monday when Asdrubal Cabrera turned the 14th unassisted triple play in Major League history, Victor Martinez made a shoestring jumping catch on a line shot in the ninth and Franklin Guiterrez pulled down a ball in the gap.

To be blunt, Lee's certainly been fortunate so far this season and this luck won't continue forever. That BABIP should creep its way toward the .300 line and put Lee in more difficult pitching situations, which in turn should lead to more runs allowed.

A more obvious reason for Lee's exceptional start is his low walk totals. After yielding two on Monday, Lee now has given up all of four free passes. Keeping in mind that Lee has always had decent control, he's still walking 4% fewer batters per plate appearance than his career-best 6.2% in 2005. Right now, his BB/PA stands at an incredible 2.1%. Meanwhile Lee's strikeouts per plate appearance has skyrocketed to 23%. His previous career high is 17%.

What's all this mean? Well, if you were keeping track Lee's previous best strike percentage, BABIP, BB/PA and K/BB were all in 2005 -- the same year Lee went 18-5. The difference between 2005 and '06 and '07 was that Lee threw more strikes, walked fewer and had a lower BABIP. The same is true this season, except in a much more drastic manner.

As we saw, Lee's not just beating his career-best on the ratios above, he's destroying each one. It's easy to conclude that Lee won't be able to keep up these numbers. No one could. But it's not unreasonable to believe Lee will be a very effective and successful pitcher throughout the entire season.

We saw what Lee can do when he slightly raises his strike percentage and strike out totals while lowering his walks. If Lee continues to throw more strikes and fewer balls, even if not to this extent, he should still be a good pitcher, much like he was in '05. The biggest unknown is how high that BABIP stat will rise, especially when Lee stops striking out as many hitters and allows more balls in play.

Remember in 2005 his BABIP dropped by about 18 points below his career average. With an improved Indians defense, Lee has a chance to be around that number by season's end. If he is, then Lee will have matched or bested his 2005 numbers on all the aforementioned statistics.

By improving on these stats in 2005, Lee posted career-best numbers. Doing it again in 2007 could mean an even better season for Lee.

Cliff Lee is F*%^ing Amazing

For the sixth straight start Cliff Lee was absolutely awesome.

Lee, who won A.L. Pitcher of the Month award in April, completely confused and dominated the New York Yankees Wednesday night leading Cleveland to a 3-0 victory. Lee finished throwing 104 pitches in seven innings, allowed zero runs on six hits, struck out seven and walked none.

Lee now leads the Majors with a 6-0 record and he's walked just two batters in 44 innings. That's one batter every 22 innings. Simply unreal.

Once again Lee used his fastball to set up his big hooking curveball. Lee spotted the fastball all over the plate -- high, low, inside, outside. He put it wherever he wanted at a consistent 91, 92 or 93 miles per hour. Then Lee would put the batter away with a 76 mile per hour curve and it'd be lights out.

Even the balls hit off Lee were dinky. Morgan Ensberg hit a dribbler that traveled about 7 feet down the third base side. Bobby Abreu hit a slow chopper to first which he barely beat out for an infield single. The Yankees just couldn't put good wood on the ball all night.

With the victory, the Indians guarantee a season series win over New York. After losing all six regular season games last season, it's nice to get a little payback with four wins in six games.

As for Lee, he's on cruise control at this point. His ERA dropped from 0.96 to 0.81. He had a 27 straight scoreless inning streak snapped last start against Seattle but started a new streak tonight. While the Indians continue to struggle, Lee has been the stopper all season. He's give the team a huge lift and it's keeping them right in the middle of the A.L. Central.

Right now, without a doubt, Lee is simply the best pitcher in baseball.

5-0

Cliff Lee is 5-0. He took another shutout into the 7th before yielding a three-run homer to rookie Wladimir Balentien as the Indians snapped a three-game skid with an 8-3 victory over Seattle.

The home run makes the final line look a little less impressive than Lee's previous wins, but this game was really just more of the same from the lefty. After a shaky first inning, where he allowed two singles, Lee settled down and had an 8-0 lead entering the 7th. His ERA "jumped" to 0.96 and he's now thrown five straight quality starts. Lee finished with six innings, three earned runs, zero walks, three strikeouts and 97 pitches thrown.

What else can you say about Lee that hasn't already been said? He continues to be the comeback story of the year and save the Indians from having an even worse start to the season. Lee's control continues to be excellent and he's keeping the ball in the yard (tonight excluded) much better than in past seasons. It's safe to say he's easily become the best fifth starter in baseball.

With the win Cleveland improves to 13-15 and keeps pace with Detroit who roughed up the Yankees 6-2.

Game Wrap and Box Score 4/30