With the bowl matchups out last week, my present to you this Christmas season are bowl picks. A run-through of all the bowl games with my picks and reasons. All picks are with the spread involved.
Poinsettia Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Texas Christian (-12) -- December 19, 8:00 p.m.
Heisman hopeful and All-American running back Garrett Wolfe ends his career against a formidable Texas Christian rush defense. The Horned Frogs allow just 2.6 rushing yards per attempt and have outscored opponents by a 3:1 margin this season, while the Huskies won their last two games to become bowl eligible. TCU is riding a seven-game winning streak and haven't been tested by any opponent since a 20-7 loss to Utah in early October. Wolfe is an amazing back, but he has been held in check several times this season against good run defenses, including Western Michigan and Iowa. The same will happen here as the Horned Frogs cruise to their 11th win.
My pick: TCU 31-14 Score: TCU 37-7 (1-0)
Las Vegas Bowl
Brigham Young (-4) vs. Oregon -- December 21, 8:00 p.m.
BYU's John Beck has been simply unstoppable all season, piling up incredible numbers while leading his Cougars to a 10-2 record, including nine straight victories. Beck's thrown 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions and averages more than 319 passing yards per contest. Besides a close 33-31 win against Utah to end the season, the Cougars had completely thrashed eight straight opponents. Oregon has contained passing offenses well this season, allowing just 156 yards per game. The Ducks started the season ranked but have faded down the stretch by losing three in a row and five of their last seven. BYU is simply too talented and too confident to lose this game.
My pick: BYU 35-20 Score: BYU 38-8 (2-0)
New Orleans Bowl
Troy State vs. Rice (-6) -- December 22, 8:00 p.m.
As you probably already knew, the Rice football team stumbled out of the gate en route to losing five of its first six games. But, have no fear, those pesky Owls turned their season around by winning their final six contests to earn a spot in this new bowl game. Troy counters with wins in six of its last 7 games and battled Florida State and Georgia Tech into the fourth quarter earlier this season. The experience from those tough games against BCS-conference opponents should help the Trojans against Rice.
My pick: Rice 24-21 Score: Troy 41-17 (3-0)
PapaJohns.com Bowl
East Carolina vs. South Florida (-4) December 23, 1:00 p.m.
This is an intriguing matchup between two teams that overachieved this season. Both Skip Holtz and Jim Leavitt earned their programs respectability after impressive seasons. South Florida's recent upset of West Virginia as well as a 5-3 Big East conference record prove this team should be ready to handle the Pirates.
My pick: South Florida 27-20 Score: South Florida 24-7 (4-0)
(Side note: I just realized how long this will take me, so I may zoom through a few of these games.)
New Mexico Bowl
San Jose State vs. New Mexico (-3.5) -- December 23, 4:30 p.m.
So, New Mexico gets to play in the New Mexico Bowl? That's creative. Since I don't know anything about either of these teams, I'll go with the home team.
My pick: New Mexico 23-17 Score: San Jose State 20-12 (4-1)
Armed Forces Bowl
Utah (-1.5) vs. Tulsa -- December 23, 8:00 p.m.
Utah has been competitive in all five of its losses this season and nearly pulled off an upset of BYU, before losing 33-31. Interesting note here: The Utes are the only Mountain West team to lead BYU this season. Meanwhile Tulsa plays in a weaker conference and lost three of its last four down the stretch.
My pick: Utah 34-17 Score: Utah 25-13 (5-1)
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii (-8) vs. Arizona State -- December 24, 8:00 p.m.
This is the easiest game to pick of all the bowl games. I'd take the Rainbow Warriors if the spread was 13. Quarterback Colt Brennan's stats would be difficult to attain playing NCAA Football for XBox 360 with the difficulty level set to easy. Digest these numbers: 4,990 passing yards, 53 touchdowns, 11 INTs. That's beyond ridiculous. Hawaii lost close games to three quality opponents (Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State) and dropped 60 on four different defenses. Meanwhile Arizona State just fired its head coach, recorded a losing record in PAC-10 play and has absolutely zero quality wins this season. Either I'm missing something here or an eight-point spread is significantly too low.
My pick: Hawaii 48-21 Score: Hawaii 41-24 (6-1)
Motor City Bowl
Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan (-10) -- December 26, 7:30 p.m.
Central Michigan drilled the Ohio Bobcats 31-10. The Blue Raiders should be nervous.
My pick: Central Michigan 28-17 Score: Central Michigan 31-14 (7-1)
Emerald Bowl
UCLA (-5) vs. Florida State -- December 27, 8:00 p.m.
Riding high after knocking off USC, UCLA's defense should give Florida State fits. At this point, Greentown Pee Wee football could run the ball better than the Seminoles, who average an atrocious 3.5 yards per carry. By the way, this team has six wins this season. Four of those include Troy, Rice, Western Michigan and Duke. Just throwing that out there.
My pick: UCLA 20-10 Score: Florida State 44-27 (7-2)
Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs. Alabama -- December 28, 4:30 p.m.
Here's a rule to live by: If your team doesn't have a head coach for its bowl game, you're probably going to lose.
My pick: Oklahoma State 27-17 Score: Oklahoma State 34-31 (8-2)
Texas Bowl
Kansas State vs. Rutgers (-7.5) -- December 28, 8:00 p.m.
It's took me 15 minutes to try and convince myself that Rutgers will win this game by more than one score. I just can't do it. Sorry. Rutgers wins this game because they have more talent and better coaching. But the Scarlet Knights dropped two late season games and aren't exactly playing like they did against Louisville. Expect a closer game against the Wildcats.
My pick: Rutgers 24-21 Score: Rutgers 37-10 (8-3)
Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M vs. California (-5.5) -- December 28, 8:00 p.m.
After losing its opener to Tennessee, then blowing through eight straight victories, many media pundits had the Golden Bears as the best one-loss team in the nation. But then Cal lost to Arizona. And again to USC. And barely handled a one-win Stanford squad 26-17. Texas A&M finished its season by pounding Texas and have two of its three losses by a single point. On top of those facts, the Aggies are getting almost a full touchdown. Can you say money pick?
My pick: Texas A&M 27-24 Score: California 45-10 (8-4)
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Clemson (-10) -- December 29, 1:00 p.m.
Kentucky rallied down the stretch to win four of its final five and become bowl eligible. Still, this seems like a complete mismatch, considering how well Clemson runs the ball and how poor Kentucky's defense has played at times this season. Ten points is awfully high, but I really can't see the Wildcats keeping this game close.
My pick: Clemson 34-20 Score: Kentucky 28-20 (8-5)
Sun Bowl
Missouri vs. Oregon State (-3) -- December 29, 2:00 p.m.
Missouri really flopped to finish the season, losing three of its last four and was a very average 4-4 in Big 12 conference play. Oregon State turned its season around by upsetting USC. The Beavers are winners of seven of their last eight and finished the PAC-10 schedule with six wins.
Poinsettia Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Texas Christian (-12) -- December 19, 8:00 p.m.
Heisman hopeful and All-American running back Garrett Wolfe ends his career against a formidable Texas Christian rush defense. The Horned Frogs allow just 2.6 rushing yards per attempt and have outscored opponents by a 3:1 margin this season, while the Huskies won their last two games to become bowl eligible. TCU is riding a seven-game winning streak and haven't been tested by any opponent since a 20-7 loss to Utah in early October. Wolfe is an amazing back, but he has been held in check several times this season against good run defenses, including Western Michigan and Iowa. The same will happen here as the Horned Frogs cruise to their 11th win.
My pick: TCU 31-14 Score: TCU 37-7 (1-0)
Las Vegas Bowl
Brigham Young (-4) vs. Oregon -- December 21, 8:00 p.m.
BYU's John Beck has been simply unstoppable all season, piling up incredible numbers while leading his Cougars to a 10-2 record, including nine straight victories. Beck's thrown 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions and averages more than 319 passing yards per contest. Besides a close 33-31 win against Utah to end the season, the Cougars had completely thrashed eight straight opponents. Oregon has contained passing offenses well this season, allowing just 156 yards per game. The Ducks started the season ranked but have faded down the stretch by losing three in a row and five of their last seven. BYU is simply too talented and too confident to lose this game.
My pick: BYU 35-20 Score: BYU 38-8 (2-0)
New Orleans Bowl
Troy State vs. Rice (-6) -- December 22, 8:00 p.m.
As you probably already knew, the Rice football team stumbled out of the gate en route to losing five of its first six games. But, have no fear, those pesky Owls turned their season around by winning their final six contests to earn a spot in this new bowl game. Troy counters with wins in six of its last 7 games and battled Florida State and Georgia Tech into the fourth quarter earlier this season. The experience from those tough games against BCS-conference opponents should help the Trojans against Rice.
My pick: Rice 24-21 Score: Troy 41-17 (3-0)
PapaJohns.com Bowl
East Carolina vs. South Florida (-4) December 23, 1:00 p.m.
This is an intriguing matchup between two teams that overachieved this season. Both Skip Holtz and Jim Leavitt earned their programs respectability after impressive seasons. South Florida's recent upset of West Virginia as well as a 5-3 Big East conference record prove this team should be ready to handle the Pirates.
My pick: South Florida 27-20 Score: South Florida 24-7 (4-0)
(Side note: I just realized how long this will take me, so I may zoom through a few of these games.)
New Mexico Bowl
San Jose State vs. New Mexico (-3.5) -- December 23, 4:30 p.m.
So, New Mexico gets to play in the New Mexico Bowl? That's creative. Since I don't know anything about either of these teams, I'll go with the home team.
My pick: New Mexico 23-17 Score: San Jose State 20-12 (4-1)
Armed Forces Bowl
Utah (-1.5) vs. Tulsa -- December 23, 8:00 p.m.
Utah has been competitive in all five of its losses this season and nearly pulled off an upset of BYU, before losing 33-31. Interesting note here: The Utes are the only Mountain West team to lead BYU this season. Meanwhile Tulsa plays in a weaker conference and lost three of its last four down the stretch.
My pick: Utah 34-17 Score: Utah 25-13 (5-1)
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii (-8) vs. Arizona State -- December 24, 8:00 p.m.
This is the easiest game to pick of all the bowl games. I'd take the Rainbow Warriors if the spread was 13. Quarterback Colt Brennan's stats would be difficult to attain playing NCAA Football for XBox 360 with the difficulty level set to easy. Digest these numbers: 4,990 passing yards, 53 touchdowns, 11 INTs. That's beyond ridiculous. Hawaii lost close games to three quality opponents (Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State) and dropped 60 on four different defenses. Meanwhile Arizona State just fired its head coach, recorded a losing record in PAC-10 play and has absolutely zero quality wins this season. Either I'm missing something here or an eight-point spread is significantly too low.
My pick: Hawaii 48-21 Score: Hawaii 41-24 (6-1)
Motor City Bowl
Middle Tennessee vs. Central Michigan (-10) -- December 26, 7:30 p.m.
Central Michigan drilled the Ohio Bobcats 31-10. The Blue Raiders should be nervous.
My pick: Central Michigan 28-17 Score: Central Michigan 31-14 (7-1)
Emerald Bowl
UCLA (-5) vs. Florida State -- December 27, 8:00 p.m.
Riding high after knocking off USC, UCLA's defense should give Florida State fits. At this point, Greentown Pee Wee football could run the ball better than the Seminoles, who average an atrocious 3.5 yards per carry. By the way, this team has six wins this season. Four of those include Troy, Rice, Western Michigan and Duke. Just throwing that out there.
My pick: UCLA 20-10 Score: Florida State 44-27 (7-2)
Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs. Alabama -- December 28, 4:30 p.m.
Here's a rule to live by: If your team doesn't have a head coach for its bowl game, you're probably going to lose.
My pick: Oklahoma State 27-17 Score: Oklahoma State 34-31 (8-2)
Texas Bowl
Kansas State vs. Rutgers (-7.5) -- December 28, 8:00 p.m.
It's took me 15 minutes to try and convince myself that Rutgers will win this game by more than one score. I just can't do it. Sorry. Rutgers wins this game because they have more talent and better coaching. But the Scarlet Knights dropped two late season games and aren't exactly playing like they did against Louisville. Expect a closer game against the Wildcats.
My pick: Rutgers 24-21 Score: Rutgers 37-10 (8-3)
Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M vs. California (-5.5) -- December 28, 8:00 p.m.
After losing its opener to Tennessee, then blowing through eight straight victories, many media pundits had the Golden Bears as the best one-loss team in the nation. But then Cal lost to Arizona. And again to USC. And barely handled a one-win Stanford squad 26-17. Texas A&M finished its season by pounding Texas and have two of its three losses by a single point. On top of those facts, the Aggies are getting almost a full touchdown. Can you say money pick?
My pick: Texas A&M 27-24 Score: California 45-10 (8-4)
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Clemson (-10) -- December 29, 1:00 p.m.
Kentucky rallied down the stretch to win four of its final five and become bowl eligible. Still, this seems like a complete mismatch, considering how well Clemson runs the ball and how poor Kentucky's defense has played at times this season. Ten points is awfully high, but I really can't see the Wildcats keeping this game close.
My pick: Clemson 34-20 Score: Kentucky 28-20 (8-5)
Sun Bowl
Missouri vs. Oregon State (-3) -- December 29, 2:00 p.m.
Missouri really flopped to finish the season, losing three of its last four and was a very average 4-4 in Big 12 conference play. Oregon State turned its season around by upsetting USC. The Beavers are winners of seven of their last eight and finished the PAC-10 schedule with six wins.
My pick: Oregon State 35-21 Score: Oregon State 39-38 (8-6)
Liberty BowlHouston vs. South Carolina (-7) -- December 29, 4:30 p.m.
I just realized that I'm spending precious time on Earth looking up stats for the Houston Cougars football team. And I'm not getting paid. Screw that.
My pick: Houston 31-30 Score: South Carolina 44-36 (8-7)
Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech (-6.5) -- December 29, 7:30 p.m.
Minnesota qualified for a bowl game? Really? And it's even on a semi-respectable day? Are we sure about this? Did the Insight Bowl selection committee think they were getting the Vikings and not the Golden Gophers? Somebody should probably check on this.
My pick: Texas Tech 40-21 Score: Texas Tech 44-41 (8-8)
Champ Sports Bowl
Purdue vs. Maryland (Even) -- December 29, 8:00 p.m.
Whoever scheduled the Insight Bowl AND the Champ Sports Bowl on the same day, just half an hour apart, should be slapped in the mouth. How the heck am I supposed to watch both of these sure-to-be-riveting games at once? On a side note, I've watched Purdue this season. They stink. Take the Terrapins.
My pick: Maryland 31-24 Score: Maryland 24-7 (9-8)
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Navy vs. Boston College (-6) -- December 30, 1:00 p.m.
I love Paul Johnson. He's an absolute winner. He won at Georgia Southern and he's turned the Naval Academy into annual 9-10 win program. It'd be very intriguing to see how well he would fare with a big-time program. As for Boston College, see Alabama and the Independence Bowl analysis above.
My pick: Navy 34-31 Score: Boston College 25-24 (10-8)
Alamo Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas (-10.5) -- December 30, 4:30 p.m.
How bad are the Hawkeyes? Here are some facts. They've lost six of eight. They won two Big Ten games all season. They lost to Indiana AND Northwestern. Their only win in the last six weeks is against Northern Illinois. And Texas is only giving 10.5 points? Um, what's the maximum I can bet?
My pick: Texas 38-14 Score: Texas 26-24 (10-9)
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Georgia -- December 30, 8:00 p.m.
I know Georgia beat Auburn and Georgia Tech to end the regular season. But Virginia Tech has won six straight and played well in all but two games the entire year. The Bulldogs looked putrid for most of the season and I don't like their odds against a Frank Beamer defense.
My pick: Virgina Tech 27-14 Score: Georgia 31-24 (10-10)
MPC Computers Bowl
Nevada Reno vs. Miami (-3.5) -- December 31, 7:30 p.m.
The only thing I know about Miami is that its a bad football team. The only thing I know about Nevada Reno is that it plays in Nevada.
My pick: Nevada Reno 24-20 Score: Miami 21-20 (11-10)
Outback Bowl
Penn State vs. Tennessee (-4.5) -- January 1, 11:00 a.m.
Have you SEEN Anthony Morelli run an offense? Good Lord, he's terrible. Behind center, he's like a high school senior who just got drunk for the first time and is trying to maneuver his way around a party looking for any girl to hook up with. He stumbles up to some girl who's way out of his league, throws out some bogus lines before finally tripping over a coffee table and throwing up all over his shoes. It's just a sad sight to witness. This is the Anthony Morelli experience.
My pick: Tennessee 31-14 Score: Penn State 20-10 (11-11)
Cotton Bowl
Auburn (-3) vs. Nebraska -- January 1, 1:00 p.m.
Auburn has two linebackers and a running back suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. That can't help the Tigers, especially after two lackluster games where they got blown out by Georgia and barely survived a mediocre Alabama team. Nebraska hasn't looked too hot, either. They turned the ball over five times in the Big 12 championship game loss to Oklahoma. Plus, can we really trust Bill Callahan in a big game?
My pick: Auburn 23-17 Score: Auburn 17-14 (11-11-1)
Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Arkansas (-1.5) -- January 1, 1:00 p.m.
Easily one of the more interesting bowl matchups. On one side, you've got a Wisconsin team that has beaten absolutely no one, has just one loss -- to Michigan -- and is ranked in the top-5. Then you've got an Arkansas team that played very well after an opening-season blowout loss to USC, beat some good SEC teams and narrowly lost its last two games to the second and third best teams in the country. The difference may be that Wisconsin hasn't seen any team this good since Michigan and they certainly haven't faced a back as talented as McFadden.
My pick: Arkansas 26-20 Score: Wisconsin 17-14 (11-12-1)
Gator Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia (-7) -- January 1, 1:00 p.m.
Not sure there could be two teams that are more opposite one another. Georgia Tech can't score because Reggie Ball plays like Steve Grogan on Tecmo Bowl and West Virginia's defense plays like it bet the over on the game and wants to cash in. The biggest question is whether Georgia Tech can score ANY points. I mean, sure, the Yellow Jackets defense is talented and formidable, but the Mountaineers will score their points. I don't think Georgia Tech can counter, especially not for four quarters.
My pick: West Virginia 31-17 Score: West Virginia 38-35 (11-13-1)
Rose Bowl
Michigan vs. USC (-1) -- January 1, 5:00 p.m.
USC got a lot of credit for beating Oregon, California and Notre Dame down the stretch. But those wins don't impress me much. Oregon is terrible and California is overrated, while the Irish not only aren't a top-5 team, they played like complete trash against the Trojans. USC has shown its flaws against two slightly above average teams in Oregon State and UCLA. Meanwhile, Michigan is just waiting to prove it should have been in the title game. The Wolverines will present the toughest defensive challenge to the Trojans yet.
My pick: Michigan 28-20 Score: USC 32-18 (11-14-1)
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State vs. Oklahoma (-7.5) -- January 1, 8:00 p.m.
The Sooners surprised everybody by taking a former wide receiver and converting him to quarterback, then losing Heisman candidate Adrian Peterson early in the season and still making a BCS bowl. This has to be Bob Stoops best coaching job of his career. The Broncos didn't have to beat anyone that good, but they looked impressive in almost every victory. Ian Johnson should give the Sooners problems. I know Oklahoma is good, but good enough to give more than touchdown? To an undefeated team? No, thanks. I'll take the Broncos and their blue turf.
My pick: Oklahoma 31-28 Score: Boise State 43-32 (12-14-1)
Orange Bowl
Louisville (-10) vs. Wake Forest -- January 2, 8:00 p.m.
Question: At what point in the game, after Brian Brohm has thrown 5 touchdowns and racked up 400 yards of offense, will Wake Forest players stop and think, 'Hey, wait a sec, we're WAKE FOREST. Why the hell are we playing football?' My money's on midway through the second.
My pick: Louisville 42-20 Score: Louisville 24-13 (13-14-1)
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame vs. LSU (-9) -- January 3, 8:00 p.m.
Unfortunately these are the facts: Notre Dame has shown it can't stop offenses with a ton of speed and an agile quarterback, can't protect Brady Quinn against any sort of a decent pass rush and can't run the football against anyone. Why again am I spending money to go to this game? The only advantage Notre Dame has is that Les Miles is a terrible head coach. But, if he has much better players, will it matter?
Side note: Over/under on the number of fights I get into after hearing, 'Tiger Bait!' during the trip? Six, and that's if I don't get arrested.
My pick: (tear rolling down my face) LSU 34-24 Score: LSU 41-14 (14-14-1)
International Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati (-8) -- January 6, noon
Whoever allowed this bowl game to be scheduled this late should be kicked in the face.
My pick: Cincinnati 24-17 Score: Cincinnati 27-24 (15-14-1)
GMAC Bowl
Ohio vs. Southern Mississippi (-6) -- January 7, 8:00 p.m.
You don't give Frank Solich a month to prepare for an opponent and get away with it.
My pick: Ohio 31-24 Score: Southern Mississippi 28-7 (15-15-1)
BCS Championship Game
Ohio State (-8) vs. Florida -- January 8, 8:00 p.m.
I didn't get a chance to see Florida beat Arkansas to end the regular season, but I did see the Gators several other times throughout the year. Every time I walked away thinking, 'Wow, that team is just waiting to get pummeled.' Well, the wait is over January 8. The Buckeyes win this easily for two simple reasons: they have more talent and a better coach. No other explanation is needed, really. Give Jim Tressel similar talent as an opponent and he's going to beat you 85% of the time. Florida got outgained by Vanderbilt and should have lost two or three other games this season. At this point, I think LSU is better. I hope to baby Jesus that I'm wrong, but if my life depended on picking this game correctly with the spread, I'd take the Buckeyes.
My pick: Ohio State 37-21 Score: Florida 41-14 (15-16-1)
Notre Dame vs. LSU (-9) -- January 3, 8:00 p.m.
Unfortunately these are the facts: Notre Dame has shown it can't stop offenses with a ton of speed and an agile quarterback, can't protect Brady Quinn against any sort of a decent pass rush and can't run the football against anyone. Why again am I spending money to go to this game? The only advantage Notre Dame has is that Les Miles is a terrible head coach. But, if he has much better players, will it matter?
Side note: Over/under on the number of fights I get into after hearing, 'Tiger Bait!' during the trip? Six, and that's if I don't get arrested.
My pick: (tear rolling down my face) LSU 34-24 Score: LSU 41-14 (14-14-1)
International Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati (-8) -- January 6, noon
Whoever allowed this bowl game to be scheduled this late should be kicked in the face.
My pick: Cincinnati 24-17 Score: Cincinnati 27-24 (15-14-1)
GMAC Bowl
Ohio vs. Southern Mississippi (-6) -- January 7, 8:00 p.m.
You don't give Frank Solich a month to prepare for an opponent and get away with it.
My pick: Ohio 31-24 Score: Southern Mississippi 28-7 (15-15-1)
BCS Championship Game
Ohio State (-8) vs. Florida -- January 8, 8:00 p.m.
I didn't get a chance to see Florida beat Arkansas to end the regular season, but I did see the Gators several other times throughout the year. Every time I walked away thinking, 'Wow, that team is just waiting to get pummeled.' Well, the wait is over January 8. The Buckeyes win this easily for two simple reasons: they have more talent and a better coach. No other explanation is needed, really. Give Jim Tressel similar talent as an opponent and he's going to beat you 85% of the time. Florida got outgained by Vanderbilt and should have lost two or three other games this season. At this point, I think LSU is better. I hope to baby Jesus that I'm wrong, but if my life depended on picking this game correctly with the spread, I'd take the Buckeyes.
My pick: Ohio State 37-21 Score: Florida 41-14 (15-16-1)
