It's the Bullpen, Stupid
In my last post (two weeks ago...yikes), I talked about the Indians hitters and their inability to produce so far this season. I also said the bullpen was the other major problem with Cleveland's 2008 team. Today, I'll take a closer look at where and why this part of the team has struggled.
Bullpens are the most volatile group of players on a team from year to year. A bullpen can be ineffective one season and bounce back to be quite good the next, despite few changes. A good example of this is the 2005 Chicago White Sox who won the World Series thanks to ridiculously dominating relief pitching that a year earlier (with the almost the same staff) was average at best.
Much like the 2005 White Sox, the 2007 Indians bullpen was outstanding last season led by setup man Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt's numbers in '07 might have been the best ever for a relief pitcher. He finished with 79.1 innings pitched, 80 strikeouts, nine walks, a 1.47 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and a 5-1 record.
This season Betancourt is a major reason the Tribe bullpen is statistically the worst in the American League. Betancourt has a 2-3 record with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio. His Value Over Replacement Player is -3.3.
Cleveland shouldn't have expected Betancourt to reproduce his 2007 season again this year. But nobody thought anything close to this collapse was even a remote possibility.
Betancourt isn't the only reliever who's regressed this season. Rafael Perez had a 1.78 ERA last season as the primary lefty setup man. This year his ERA has climbed to 3.62 and he's allowing more than one hit per inning. Opponents hit a paltry .187 against Perez in '07, but are now batting .270 against him this season. While Perez does have a VORP of 5.2, he hasn't been nearly as effective in '08.
Besides the Rafael's struggles, the Indians sorely missed closer Joe Borowski for much of the season with an arm injury. While many Cleveland fans (including me) thought the injury would be a blessing in disguise because Betancourt would get to close, it turned out to be a disaster. Not only did Betancourt implode as the closer, the Indians had no other solid options to pitch the ninth. Now that Borowski is back in his closer's role, the Tribe should actually feel more comfortable. This is ironic since Borowski has a -3.7 VORP so far this season.
For the Indians to have a chance in the Central Division, they obviously need the bullpen to improve. It doesn't have to be as good as last year's version. That's not realistic. But the relief corps must be an effective unit and so far in 2008 they've been sub par. With the bats still struggling (although showing some life the past 10 days), Cleveland can't afford to give away leads late in the game. They simply don't have enough offensive firepower to overcome the bullpen's mistakes.
The next three to six weeks will be telling for Cleveland. They must decide whether to be buyers or sellers at the all star break, and specifically whether it's more beneficial to trade C.C. Sabathia or keep him for the remainder of the season in hopes he leads the team to the playoffs. If the bullpen continues to falter, it's likely Cleveland will be selling come July 31st.
