Back from the Bend. This weekend's games gave us one certainty and a whole bunch of questions marks.
Let's start out with the easy part: Ohio State is definitely the best team in the nation after beating Michigan 42-39.
Beyond that undeniable fact, everything is clear as mud.
Looking at the contenders:
Michigan: The Wolverines are still No. 2 in the latest BCS poll and there's exactly where they shouldn't be. There is absolutely no way Michigan deserves another shot at Ohio State. For three reasons:
1.) Michigan isn't even the best team in their conference. To play in the national championship game, shouldn't you have to be the best team out of the other 10 in your conference? I'd put USC above Michigan here simply because USC won the PAC-10. Michigan's the Big Ten runner-up.
2.) It's grossly and completely unfair to Ohio State. Um, what happens if Michigan somehow wins the title rematch? Now they're the best team in the country? We're just all gonna forget about the first game? Pretend it didn't happen? Give Michigan the mulligan?
Let's start out with the easy part: Ohio State is definitely the best team in the nation after beating Michigan 42-39.
Beyond that undeniable fact, everything is clear as mud.
Looking at the contenders:
Michigan: The Wolverines are still No. 2 in the latest BCS poll and there's exactly where they shouldn't be. There is absolutely no way Michigan deserves another shot at Ohio State. For three reasons:
1.) Michigan isn't even the best team in their conference. To play in the national championship game, shouldn't you have to be the best team out of the other 10 in your conference? I'd put USC above Michigan here simply because USC won the PAC-10. Michigan's the Big Ten runner-up.
2.) It's grossly and completely unfair to Ohio State. Um, what happens if Michigan somehow wins the title rematch? Now they're the best team in the country? We're just all gonna forget about the first game? Pretend it didn't happen? Give Michigan the mulligan?
Just so I have this straight, let's recap. If Ohio State beats Michigan twice, the Buckeyes are national champs. If Michigan splits the two games, the Wolverines are national champs. Seriously, great system we've got here in college football.
3.) Losing late in the season is more costly than losing early in the season. Sorry, Wolverine fans, this is reality. Whether fair or not, if you lose early, you have time to reconcile that defeat. If you lose in the last game of your season to your biggest rival, you're cooked.
So if Michigan doesn't deserve a title shot, who does?
Notre Dame: Even if the Irish beat USC, the fact remains they still lost to Michigan by 26. There's no reason to think Notre Dame would beat Ohio State if Michigan couldn't. The pollsters haven't liked the Irish all season, so don't expect it to begin now.
Florida: I'm sorry, but if you get out-gained by the Vanderbilt Commodores and need two blocked kicks to beat South Carolina, you're not the second best team in the country. Florida has also stumbled down the stretch, squeaking by Georgia, Vandy, and South Carolina -- all by a touchdown or less. But if the Gators can beat Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game, those close losses will be viewed in a different light.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have played exceptionally well en route to going undefeated in SEC play thus far. If they can finish off LSU and Florida, Arkansas could have a very legitimate chance of making it to Glendale. Oh wait. Nevermind. The Razorbacks lost to USC 50-14. That's a 36-point loss if you're scoring at home.
USC: The Trojans can claim wins against California, Oregon and Arkansas. They also have a chance to knock off Notre Dame. Those wins will impress the voters enough to move the Trojans to No. 2. Is that fair?
Remember USC did lose to an unranked Oregon State team. At least Notre Dame lost to the No. 2 team in the country. If Notre Dame beats USC, the Irish will still not be considered for the national title game because of its blowout loss to Michigan. But USC can lose to Oregon State and it's ok? How is the Oregon State loss "better" than losing to No. 2 Michigan? By that logic, would the Irish have been better off losing to unranked Michigan State and beating Michigan? I'm so confused.
Rutgers: Welcome back to reality! We all missed you here. It just wasn't the same without you.
So, what to do? Without the obvious best answer (a playoff system), we're stuck with a cluster of one-loss teams, none of which has a strikingly impressive resume which puts it above the rest. If USC wins its last two games, the Trojans will go to the title game. If Notre Dame wins, then it's likely that Michigan gets a second chance. If Florida wins out and USC loses a game, the Gators could sneak in as well.
The only thing we do know is that Ohio State is a notch above everyone else. And all this debating probably won't make much of a difference.
On January 8th, the Buckeyes will likely beat whoever shows up.
2 comments:
You're right. I added something about USC. Totally forgot to include them when writing this quickly last night. Thanks.
like i said--the team i like if they run the table is arkansas. let's break this down.
but not first without saying that no one really deserves a chance against osu and they should be crowns no. 1 right now. not that they cant be beat--just that they have nothing else to prove.
moving on. (teams winning out) and michigan is not involved because why play the same team two weeks in a row. like you said...what if they split?
1. if usc wins they're in. they beat oregon, cal, nd and a top ten arkansas team. they did lose to oregon state.
2. if nd wins. they beat a probable acc champion gt team (god that conference is ASS) and usc. they also needed MIRACLES to beat ucla and msu. and their schedule includes the powerhouse teams army, navy, air force, stanford and north carolina.
3. florida wins out. they win BY FAR the toughest conference in the country. one problem. i hate them and their premier non-conference win against a god awful fsu team. i hate this team
4. arkansas wins out. they win BY FAR the toughest conference in the country. two problems. they got blown out by usc and their top non-conference win is utah state. or maybe it's SEMO. or maybe it's LA-Lafayette. get my point? maybe i dont like this team as much as i thought.
what it comes down to is every team stinks except osu and michigan and michigan already had their shot.
usc and florida win--usc goes. nd and arkansas are better than any win on florida schedule
usc and arkansas win--usc beat them 50-14 or something.
nd and florida. the voters and computers will like florida for winning the sec but nd is flat out the better team. florida goes but it's a mistake.
nd and arkansas. both have UGLY losses from usc and michigan. and nd can argue that it beat usc while arkansas lost by a million. you know what, i usually hate doing this but it was the first game of the season. they play them again and it's a much closer game (same argument can be made for michigan and nd). i give the edge to arkansas for winning the toughest conference and having beat florida, lsu and auburn.
it's close...veeeeery close. but that's the way i'd like to see it break down in those scenarios.
what do i think actually happens?
ND beats usc. arkansas beats florida and ND plays for the national title.
getting dominated by osu for second year in a row.
joe hettler thinks of killing himself but later decides to never go back to ohio instead.
michael hettler closes both businesses in ohio and moves to the bahamas to be a full time swinger--never thinking about football again.
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