Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Important Week for the Irish

Notre Dame will have a much better idea of its ability and tournament chances after this weekend.

The Irish open up Big East play with two stringent tests, the first against West Virginia (10-2) Thursday night and the second Saturday against Connecticut (9-2).

Notre Dame completed its non-conference schedule at 10-2, with two close defeats to Baylor and Georgia Tech and a quality win over Kansas State. But if the Irish want to make the tournament they must impress against a difficult conference slate.

West Virginia has alum Bob Huggins at the helm and all indications point to the Mountaineers playing typical Huggins-style basketball -- suffocating defense and strong rebounding. West Virginia yields an average of 59 points and out-rebounds opponents by about five boards per game. Still, the Mountaineers haven't notched a quality win yet, losing 74-72 to Tennessee and 88-82 to Oklahoma in overtime.

The Mountaineers will likely clamp down with double teams on forward Luke Harangody and force the Irish to beat them from the perimeter. For the season Notre Dame has made 41.7% of its 3-point attempts, but fewer than 37% in both its losses. Kyle McAlarney needs to bounce back after an ugly shooting performance on New Year's Eve against North Florida when the guard made just 2-of-11 shots, including 1-of-9 3-pointers. The Irish will need Ryan Ayers and Rob Kurz to make some perimeter shots as well. If those three can connect on 40% of their 3-point attempts, Notre Dame will have an excellent chance for a victory.

One of the biggest improvements from last season is Notre Dame's ability to rebound on both the offensive and defensive ends. The Irish average 42 rebounds per game, 11 better than their opponents. But West Virginia will be much more physical and tough on the glass than previous Irish foes. Six-foot-eight junior Joe Alexander leads the Mountaineers with 6.8 rebounds per contest.

Defensively, Notre Dame will be challenged by a Mountaineer team that averages 85 points per game and has four players averaging double figures, paced by junior Alex Ruoff who nets 16 points per game. The Irish have played very good defense for most of the season, holding opponents to just 61 points per game. Even in both losses the defense played well, allowing just 68 to Baylor and 70 to Georgia Tech, respectively.

The next two games will be telling: if the Irish win both they are certainly in the driver's seat to make the tournament. While a 1-1 record isn't ideal, the team will have plenty of remaining games to make up for one early conference defeat.

But if Notre Dame drops these first two games they will be in very serious trouble of missing the tournament. With roads games looming against Marquette, Georgetown and Villanova in early January, Notre Dame cannot afford to stumble during this three-day, two-game stretch.

I never like to put too much emphasis on a small subset of games when the college basketball regular season stretches from November to early March. But in this case, Notre Dame has a lot at stake between opening tip Thursday and the final buzzer Saturday night.




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