Offensive Struggles

The Cleveland Indians starting rotation posts the Major League's lowest ERA and highest SNLVAR (SNLVAR is a Baseball Prospectus stat that tells us the wins above replacement pitcher, or in this case staff, with offensive and defensive factors eliminated).

Yet the Tribe is just 25-29, five games behind Chicago and losers of seven of their last 10 games. Despite the starting pitching giving the Indians not just a chance, but a great opportunity to win each night, Cleveland finds itself struggling in the middle of the Central Division.

The problem is two-fold -- a struggling bullpen and an anemic offense. I'm going to discuss the latter today because it appears to be the most serious and potentially long-term problem for the 2008 season.

Cleveland's offense is ranked 23rd in runs scored, 25th in on-base percentage and an embarrassing 29th in team batting average, which at .234 is one point above dead-last Washington. It has just two players, Grady Sizemore and Ben Francisco, with EqBA (equivalent batting average) above .252.

Victor Martinez is hitting .294, but has yet to hit a home run. Travis Hafner (.217), Jamey Carroll (.231), Jhonny Peralta (.233), David Dellucci (.229), Casey Blake (.218) and Ryan Garko (.228) are among the worst collection of hitters in the league right now, at least according to batting average. Blake hits ninth in the order most nights and is tied for the team lead in RBI with 29.

How is Cleveland's offense this bad? For starters, the better hitters in the lineup have underperformed thus far. Martinez and his lack of power has been the primary reason Cleveland is the only team in the Major Leagues without a home run from the cleanup spot. Hafner is making last season look like the new norm instead of an aberration. Even Sizemore is struggling to keep his average about .260 and just recently began showing his power stroke.

With those three struggling, the Indians need the remaining guys to pick up the slack. Unfortunately, the other six hitters plus the bench guys are bringing the Cleveland offense down even more. Specifically, the biggest problem is that Cleveland gets very little production from first base and both corner outfield positions. These three spots in any team's lineup are almost always held down by very solid, productive, power hitters. In the Cleveland lineup, those positions are currently filled with Garko (.228, 4 HR, 20 RBI), and a combination of Franklin Gutierrez (.236, 3 HR, 18 RBI), Dellucci (.229, 5 HR, 16 RBI) and the semi-productive Francisco (.310, 2 HR, 12 RBI).

While opponents trot out first basemen and corner outfielders with high averages or good power or a combination of both, the Indians' bats barely register as above Triple-A level. Those are three huge holes in a lineup where the best three hitters aren't hitting. And that's how you get an offense that's minutely better than the Washington Nationals.

For the Tribe to contend this season, they almost certainly have to grab another bat. Colorado's Garrett Aktins name has surfaced as a potential offensive piece as has Pittsburgh's Jason Bay. Both would be a wonderful addition to the middle of the current order.

But beyond trading for another bat, Cleveland also needs everyone -- someone -- to simply start hitting. The Indians have already wasted far too many outstanding pitching performances because the offense couldn't muster three runs. While it's likely Sizemore and Martinez will find their stroke, other guys like Dellucci and Garko are closer to platoon players than starters on most teams. How much can we really expect offensively from Carroll or Gutierrez? Perhaps hitting coach Derek Shelton needs to try a different approach with his hitters. It's obvious that something needs to change soon.

We're about 1/3 through the season and Cleveland has two glaring weaknesses in its bullpen and offense. While the starting pitching continues to be amazing, this team can't consistently win with no relief pitching and no hitting. I'm not as concerned about the bullpen now that Joe Borowski is back as the closer and the relievers can settle into their normal roles.

But when I look at this offense, I struggle to see where the runs will come from. Besides Sizemore and Martinez, the Indians have a bunch of hitters who have never really been outstanding on a consistent basis. If the bats can't get better soon, Cleveland will continue to find itself in deep trouble in the Central Division.