Pronkless

From 2004 to 2006, Travis Hafner absolutely mashed the ball. He got on base. He drove in runs. He hit for power. He scared the crap out of opposing pitchers.

He was one of the most dominant hitters in the game.

But things changed in 2007. Hafner scuffled most of the year, but still finished with 24 home runs, 100 RBIs and a very good .385 on-base percentage. Many people thought 2007 was simply a mirage.

It might be a new reality.

Heading into Tuesday's game against the White Sox, Hafner has fewer home runs than Rickie Weeks. He's driven in just 20 runs. He's only scored 17 runs and is batting a measly .228. Worse yet, Hafner's not even drawing walks as his on-base percentage is an ugly .335.

What's happened to the Travis Hafner that used to punish the baseball on a nightly basis?

Travis Hafner stats:

Year							H	2B		HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005							148	42		33	108	79	123	.305	.408	.595	1003
2006							140	31		42	117	85	111	.308	.423	.659	1082
2007							145	25		24	100	102	115	.266	.385	.451	836
2008							31	8		4	20	20	36	.228	.335	.375	710

Look at the contrast between Hafner's power numbers in '05 and '06 compared to '07 and the start of this season. His on-base plus slugging went from among the league leaders to a very mundane 836 last season and a downright awful 710 this season. His average hit the tank and his slugging dropped off. Scary trends for anyone, especially a DH.

Year						ISOP	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%
2005						.290	13.7%	21.3%	.348
2006						.351	17.8%	19.7%	.326	40%	20%
2007						.185	17.6%	17.0%	.298	48%	19%
2008						.147	14.0%	22.0%	.281	44%	21%

Perhaps part of the reason for Hafner's decline is that when he's hitting the ball, it's not going for hits near as much as in past seasons. Some of this BABIP regression could be that Hafner isn't driving the ball to the gaps as much. Or maybe the shift that opposing defense use (putting three infielders on the right side) has stopped a few hits from going through. This theory seems unlikely as teams have played the shift on Hafner for several seasons.

I thought that Hafner would be striking out at a greater rate than previous seasons, and he has so far in 2008 (22.0%). But surprisingly, Hafner actually posted his best strikeout/walk ratio of his career in 2007 by walking more than he struck out.

One difference I do see is Hafner's ground ball ratios. Last season he continued hitting line drives at about a 20% clip which was in step with his career marks. But he hit a lot more ground balls last season (48% in '07 from 40% in '06) and has continued to do so this season (44%). With Hafner's lack of speed, most ground balls are going to become outs. If his line drives are staying the same and he's increasing his ground balls, it's apparent Hafner is failing to elevate the ball. This might explain the power drop as it's hard to hit a home run when you don't hit the ball in the air as much.

The good news for Hafner is that he's had a much better May than April. He's got the OBP up to .422 this month and he's hitting .268 compared to .208 in April. So there's certainly hope Hafner will turn it around. But as for explaining what Hafner is doing different mechanically, not even the Cleveland coaches know. From watching him fairly often this season, he seems to fall behind quite a bit in counts which would force him to swing at less than optimal pitches later in at-bats. This in turn could lead to more choppers on the infield and less power to the gaps. Still, it's hard to tell exactly what's bothering Pronk.

It's still early, so it'll be interesting to look back on Hafner's stats in July or August and see the difference. For now, I'm like every other Cleveland fan and have no idea why Pronk has slumped so hard and fast. I just hope he finds his swing sooner than later.

The Indians offense has struggled all season and Hafner has been a big part of the problem. If Cleveland is going to seriously contend for the World Series, the team needs to improve the offense. With few other consistent power options in the lineup, the pressure falls on Pronk to find his old self.