N.L. East Preview
By Joe
The National League East is an intriguing division. Four of the five teams could legitimately contend for playoff spots. There is exciting, young pitching (see John Maine and Cole Hamels), great young bats (David Wright, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera to name a few) and excellent rivalries (Braves vs. Mets, Mets vs. Phillies, Braves vs. Phillies). Here's a look at all five teams in this hotly contested division.
Washington Nationals (2006 record: 71-91, 5th place N.L. East)
I look at the Washington Nationals lineup and starting rotation and I wonder how this team will win 60 games. They start Dimitri Young at first base, Chris Snelling in left field and Ronnie Belliard at second. Their "ace" is John Patterson, who's coming off of a major arm injury in 2006 and the rest of their rotation (Hill, Williams, Chico and Bergmann) sounds like a law firm in the D.C. area. They have a first-year manager and lost their only star, Alfonso Soriano, to the Cubs. Perhaps the best hitter on the team, Nick Johnson, is out with a broken leg and they're stuck playing the Mets 20 times.
How will this team not lose a 100 games?
Well, for starters, they'll need Patterson to return to his 2005 form when he went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Aside from Patterson, look for rookie Shawn Hill to have a respectable season. He's been the best starter thus far, going 1-2 in 18.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Chad Cordero is a more than adequate closer, but he'll get fewer chances save chances with the team being so pitiful. Getting Ray King back from injury should help the bullpen and Washington is optimistic that newly-acquired Ryan Wagner will be tough on righties.
The National's lineup is easily the worst in baseball and there is little hope of it improving. Felipe Lopez has lost his power from two years ago and playing at a pitcher-friendly park doesn't help. Ryan Church and Ryan Zimmerman will be the only two true threats at the plate and both could have very good years. But they'll have little help. I'm not creative enough to figure out how a lineup with Belliard, Robert Fick, Austin Kearns and Young will average more than 2.5 runs per game.
Florida Marlins (2006 record: 78-84, 4th place N.L. East)
Florida supposedly sold the farm after their last championship in 2003, but they've already restocked the lineup with a slew of outstanding talents. Miguel Cabrera is one of the top five hitters in baseball and probably the most consistent. For his career Cabrera hits .313 versus righties, .307 against lefties, .316 pre-All Star break, .307 post-All Star break, .309 at home and .315 on the road.
Unlike the past few years, Cabrera has plenty of support around him. Speedy shortstop Hanley Ramirez has emerged as a prolific basestealer, first baseman Mike Jacobs, outfielder Josh Willingham and second baseman Dan Uggla each hit at least 20 home runs in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza has shown signs of being a terrific centerfielder.
The pitching staff is anchored, once again, by Dontrelle Willis who finished last season with a 12-12 record, 3.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. I've never been a huge fan of Willis, who's career 1.30 WHIP is far too high for me to tag him an "ace." Behind Willis, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez and Sergio Mitre are all solid, young pitchers that had respectable 2006 campaigns and should continue improving as the year progresses.
Florida's biggest weakness is its bullpen, which can be summed up in one simple statement -- Henry Owens is the team's closer. HENRY OWENS!?! By the way, he wears no. 77, went to a college named Barry and logged four innings in his MLB career before 2007. I'm going to guess he's not worth picking up in fantasy leagues.
Philadelphia Phillies (2006 record: 85-77, 2nd place N.L. East)
Jimmy Rollins bragged to the media in spring training that he thought the Phillies were ready to do some damage in the N.L. East in 2007. So far, the exact opposite has happened.
For the third straight year, Philadelphia has stumbled out of the gate and fallen flat on its face. Through 12 games, the Phillies are 3-9 and have dropped to dead last in the division. I know its very early, but it's still a bad sign when a team starting Robert Fick (Washington) is ahead of you in the standings.
The offense has plenty of weapons. Ryan Howard was the MVP last season and should continue to put up astronomical numbers. Chase Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, the shortstop Rollins is off to a torrid start at the plate, left fielder Pat Burrell has plenty of power, centerfielder Aaron Rowand is a defensive stud and youngster Shane Victorino should surprise people with his combination of speed and hitting.
Brett Myers has taken break from beating his wife to struggle in the first two weeks of the season. This should concern Philly fans. Remember, this is the same guy who has a career ERA of 4.43 and WHIP of 1.36. Yikes.
My boy, Cole Hamels, has been impressive in two of his first three starts. I've already written about him, but the kid has really shown good control in the early going and that's a great sign. He walked far too many last year and he wasn't challenging hitters in deep counts. It's obvious he has the tools. He just needs to learn how to pitch to Major League hitters.
Adam Eaton, Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer round out the rotation. Let's breakdown these three. Eaton has the exact same career ERA and WHIP as Myers, which we've already established as bad. Garcia's ERA in two of the past three seasons has hovered around 4.50. Moyer is married to Digger Phelps' daughter and just turned 63 years old. Not a stellar group.
All that aside, the biggest road block to Philadelphia making the playoffs is its bullpen. They've already managed to blow several games this season, including two of Hamels' starts. Tom Gordon is an average closer who will be 40 in Novemeber. Antonio Alfonseco has six fingers on his pitching hand and hasn't been an effective reliever since 2004. And Ryan Madsen has been tagged in almost every appearance he's made. Even if the the Phillies' offense comes together and the starting pitching meshes, this bullpen could be the fatal flaw for any playoff hopes.
Atlanta Braves (2006 record: 79-83, 3rd place N.L. East)
After missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, the Braves are aiming to take back their place at the top of the N.L. East. So far, so good.
The biggest surprise this spring, and the most important piece of Atlanta's success this season, is Tim Hudson. Hudson was atrocious in 2006, recording a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He was much worse than his winning record of 13-12. But Hudson vowed to return to his old form in the offseason and hasn't disappointed through three starts, logging 21 innings, a minuscule 0.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. If Hudson has a great year, the Braves will have one of the best 1-2 starters in the game.
The other part of that duo, John Smoltz, has been defying age for the past two seasons, posting ERAs in the mid-to-low 3.00s while beating guys half his age. But he's also tallied 461 innings since the start of 2005. I know the guy hasn't had a major injury in his career but at one month short of 40 those high inning marks scare me.
Watch out for Chuck James. He could be the next great pitcher to come out of the Atlanta system. Already this season, he's 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Mark Redman is a serviceable no. 4 starter and Kyle Davies has potential after seeing extensive innings last season.
The bullpen is held down by Bob Wickman, which should make Atlanta fans cringe. A typical Wickman ninth goes something like this: walk, hit by pitch, fly out to the warning track, walk, fly out to the warning track, fly out to the warning track. Have fun Braves fans. It's always an adventure with Big Bob on the hill.
As usual, the lineup is anchored by the Joneses. The annual question of how long Chipper will last before succumbing to injury is alive and well in Atlanta. I believe the over/under is mid-May. This lineup won't overwhelm you, but its got some upside. Jeff Franceour has a ton of power, Brian McCann is a hitting machine and Edgar Renteria should hit around .290. Offensively, the Braves should be much better than a year ago.
New York Mets (2006 record: 97-65, 1st place N.L. East)
Everyone knows about the Mets ridiculous lineup. From top to bottom it will wear out starters by the second trip through and cause bullpens to shiver. Jose Reyes has dramatically cutback on his strikeouts the past two years and can do it all at the leadoff spot. He's also a triples-machine. Paul Lo Duca is the perfect no. 2 hitter, a guy who sprays the ball to all fields and works the count in nearly every plate appearance. Carlos Beltran and David Wright both have 30-30 potential, while Carlos Delgado and his 407 career home runs is sandwiched in between them.
The bottom half of the lineup isn't to shabby either. Veteran Shawn Green and rookie Lastings Milledge should platoon all season and put up respectable numbers. Moises Alou and Jose Valentin are two veterans who will provide leadership and some decent production to compliment the firepower near the top of the lineup.
The starting staff could definitely use a healthy Pedro Martinez, but so far they've done an admirable job of limiting opponents from scoring. Tom Glavine must be drinking the same stuff Smoltz drinks because he continues to get better as he gets older. He'll need to be especially effective because the rest of the staff is a question. Maine has been a bright spot through the first couple weeks and could be the most important player on this team as the season progresses. The Mets must find a solid no. 2 starter and Maine may just be the guy. The other starters are frightening. If I'm a Mets fan, thinking of Orlando Hernandez gives me heartburn, Mike Pelfry makes me bloated and Oliver Perez causes me diarrhea. Those three could single-handily kill New York this season.
The bullpen should be polished with Billy Wagner closing and Aaron Heilman setting him up. I really liked the acquisition of dependable Scot Schoeneweis and Aaron Sele could be a decent option for long relief or working the 6th and 7th innings. This team will go only as far as its starting pitching carries it. Without Martinez, that might not be very far.
By Joe
The National League East is an intriguing division. Four of the five teams could legitimately contend for playoff spots. There is exciting, young pitching (see John Maine and Cole Hamels), great young bats (David Wright, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera to name a few) and excellent rivalries (Braves vs. Mets, Mets vs. Phillies, Braves vs. Phillies). Here's a look at all five teams in this hotly contested division.
Washington Nationals (2006 record: 71-91, 5th place N.L. East)
I look at the Washington Nationals lineup and starting rotation and I wonder how this team will win 60 games. They start Dimitri Young at first base, Chris Snelling in left field and Ronnie Belliard at second. Their "ace" is John Patterson, who's coming off of a major arm injury in 2006 and the rest of their rotation (Hill, Williams, Chico and Bergmann) sounds like a law firm in the D.C. area. They have a first-year manager and lost their only star, Alfonso Soriano, to the Cubs. Perhaps the best hitter on the team, Nick Johnson, is out with a broken leg and they're stuck playing the Mets 20 times.
How will this team not lose a 100 games?
Well, for starters, they'll need Patterson to return to his 2005 form when he went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Aside from Patterson, look for rookie Shawn Hill to have a respectable season. He's been the best starter thus far, going 1-2 in 18.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Chad Cordero is a more than adequate closer, but he'll get fewer chances save chances with the team being so pitiful. Getting Ray King back from injury should help the bullpen and Washington is optimistic that newly-acquired Ryan Wagner will be tough on righties.
The National's lineup is easily the worst in baseball and there is little hope of it improving. Felipe Lopez has lost his power from two years ago and playing at a pitcher-friendly park doesn't help. Ryan Church and Ryan Zimmerman will be the only two true threats at the plate and both could have very good years. But they'll have little help. I'm not creative enough to figure out how a lineup with Belliard, Robert Fick, Austin Kearns and Young will average more than 2.5 runs per game.
Florida Marlins (2006 record: 78-84, 4th place N.L. East)
Florida supposedly sold the farm after their last championship in 2003, but they've already restocked the lineup with a slew of outstanding talents. Miguel Cabrera is one of the top five hitters in baseball and probably the most consistent. For his career Cabrera hits .313 versus righties, .307 against lefties, .316 pre-All Star break, .307 post-All Star break, .309 at home and .315 on the road.
Unlike the past few years, Cabrera has plenty of support around him. Speedy shortstop Hanley Ramirez has emerged as a prolific basestealer, first baseman Mike Jacobs, outfielder Josh Willingham and second baseman Dan Uggla each hit at least 20 home runs in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza has shown signs of being a terrific centerfielder.
The pitching staff is anchored, once again, by Dontrelle Willis who finished last season with a 12-12 record, 3.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. I've never been a huge fan of Willis, who's career 1.30 WHIP is far too high for me to tag him an "ace." Behind Willis, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez and Sergio Mitre are all solid, young pitchers that had respectable 2006 campaigns and should continue improving as the year progresses.
Florida's biggest weakness is its bullpen, which can be summed up in one simple statement -- Henry Owens is the team's closer. HENRY OWENS!?! By the way, he wears no. 77, went to a college named Barry and logged four innings in his MLB career before 2007. I'm going to guess he's not worth picking up in fantasy leagues.
Philadelphia Phillies (2006 record: 85-77, 2nd place N.L. East)
Jimmy Rollins bragged to the media in spring training that he thought the Phillies were ready to do some damage in the N.L. East in 2007. So far, the exact opposite has happened.
For the third straight year, Philadelphia has stumbled out of the gate and fallen flat on its face. Through 12 games, the Phillies are 3-9 and have dropped to dead last in the division. I know its very early, but it's still a bad sign when a team starting Robert Fick (Washington) is ahead of you in the standings.
The offense has plenty of weapons. Ryan Howard was the MVP last season and should continue to put up astronomical numbers. Chase Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, the shortstop Rollins is off to a torrid start at the plate, left fielder Pat Burrell has plenty of power, centerfielder Aaron Rowand is a defensive stud and youngster Shane Victorino should surprise people with his combination of speed and hitting.
Brett Myers has taken break from beating his wife to struggle in the first two weeks of the season. This should concern Philly fans. Remember, this is the same guy who has a career ERA of 4.43 and WHIP of 1.36. Yikes.
My boy, Cole Hamels, has been impressive in two of his first three starts. I've already written about him, but the kid has really shown good control in the early going and that's a great sign. He walked far too many last year and he wasn't challenging hitters in deep counts. It's obvious he has the tools. He just needs to learn how to pitch to Major League hitters.
Adam Eaton, Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer round out the rotation. Let's breakdown these three. Eaton has the exact same career ERA and WHIP as Myers, which we've already established as bad. Garcia's ERA in two of the past three seasons has hovered around 4.50. Moyer is married to Digger Phelps' daughter and just turned 63 years old. Not a stellar group.
All that aside, the biggest road block to Philadelphia making the playoffs is its bullpen. They've already managed to blow several games this season, including two of Hamels' starts. Tom Gordon is an average closer who will be 40 in Novemeber. Antonio Alfonseco has six fingers on his pitching hand and hasn't been an effective reliever since 2004. And Ryan Madsen has been tagged in almost every appearance he's made. Even if the the Phillies' offense comes together and the starting pitching meshes, this bullpen could be the fatal flaw for any playoff hopes.
Atlanta Braves (2006 record: 79-83, 3rd place N.L. East)
After missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, the Braves are aiming to take back their place at the top of the N.L. East. So far, so good.
The biggest surprise this spring, and the most important piece of Atlanta's success this season, is Tim Hudson. Hudson was atrocious in 2006, recording a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He was much worse than his winning record of 13-12. But Hudson vowed to return to his old form in the offseason and hasn't disappointed through three starts, logging 21 innings, a minuscule 0.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. If Hudson has a great year, the Braves will have one of the best 1-2 starters in the game.
The other part of that duo, John Smoltz, has been defying age for the past two seasons, posting ERAs in the mid-to-low 3.00s while beating guys half his age. But he's also tallied 461 innings since the start of 2005. I know the guy hasn't had a major injury in his career but at one month short of 40 those high inning marks scare me.
Watch out for Chuck James. He could be the next great pitcher to come out of the Atlanta system. Already this season, he's 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Mark Redman is a serviceable no. 4 starter and Kyle Davies has potential after seeing extensive innings last season.
The bullpen is held down by Bob Wickman, which should make Atlanta fans cringe. A typical Wickman ninth goes something like this: walk, hit by pitch, fly out to the warning track, walk, fly out to the warning track, fly out to the warning track. Have fun Braves fans. It's always an adventure with Big Bob on the hill.
As usual, the lineup is anchored by the Joneses. The annual question of how long Chipper will last before succumbing to injury is alive and well in Atlanta. I believe the over/under is mid-May. This lineup won't overwhelm you, but its got some upside. Jeff Franceour has a ton of power, Brian McCann is a hitting machine and Edgar Renteria should hit around .290. Offensively, the Braves should be much better than a year ago.
New York Mets (2006 record: 97-65, 1st place N.L. East)
Everyone knows about the Mets ridiculous lineup. From top to bottom it will wear out starters by the second trip through and cause bullpens to shiver. Jose Reyes has dramatically cutback on his strikeouts the past two years and can do it all at the leadoff spot. He's also a triples-machine. Paul Lo Duca is the perfect no. 2 hitter, a guy who sprays the ball to all fields and works the count in nearly every plate appearance. Carlos Beltran and David Wright both have 30-30 potential, while Carlos Delgado and his 407 career home runs is sandwiched in between them.
The bottom half of the lineup isn't to shabby either. Veteran Shawn Green and rookie Lastings Milledge should platoon all season and put up respectable numbers. Moises Alou and Jose Valentin are two veterans who will provide leadership and some decent production to compliment the firepower near the top of the lineup.
The starting staff could definitely use a healthy Pedro Martinez, but so far they've done an admirable job of limiting opponents from scoring. Tom Glavine must be drinking the same stuff Smoltz drinks because he continues to get better as he gets older. He'll need to be especially effective because the rest of the staff is a question. Maine has been a bright spot through the first couple weeks and could be the most important player on this team as the season progresses. The Mets must find a solid no. 2 starter and Maine may just be the guy. The other starters are frightening. If I'm a Mets fan, thinking of Orlando Hernandez gives me heartburn, Mike Pelfry makes me bloated and Oliver Perez causes me diarrhea. Those three could single-handily kill New York this season.
The bullpen should be polished with Billy Wagner closing and Aaron Heilman setting him up. I really liked the acquisition of dependable Scot Schoeneweis and Aaron Sele could be a decent option for long relief or working the 6th and 7th innings. This team will go only as far as its starting pitching carries it. Without Martinez, that might not be very far.
2 comments:
I think your assessment of the Phillies is on point for the most part, but I don’t think you give our rotation enough credit, particularly Jamie Moyer and Garcia.
Moyer’s age in and of itself is irrelevant without examples of how that age is affecting his durability or performance. He has pitched 200 innings+ in each of the past 8 seasons except for 2000 when he pitched 154 innings, and has started this season with stats that require one to categorize him as an “ace” based on the measures you mention above (ERA of 3.05, WIP of 1.18).
Your comment about Garcia’s ERA hovering around 4.50 in 2 of the past three years is incorrect. His ERAs over the past 3 seasons are: 3.81 in 2004, 3.87 in 2005, and 4.54 in 2006. It’s too early in the season on him (his first and only start was bad) but he finished last year with a 4-1 record and an ERA under 3.00 over his last 6 starts.
I’ll grant that Adam Eaton isn’t very good, but there clearly are teams with worse 5th starters.
Also, our bad start has been largely attributed to the bullpen, but the fact that we’re hitting .200 with runners in scoring position isn’t helping things either. I would argue that a lack of clutch production from Utley, Howard, and pretty much everyone else on the team is a much bigger concern than the bullpen.
You're right Matt. I got a little sloppy there. I'll give you Moyer and you're right i should have backed up my assessment. Good call.
Reading about Garcia, it sounds like scouts believe he's lost some on his fastball. His ERA with the phillies was in the mid-4s, but I didnt add in his time with the white sox in 2004. That's how I screwed that up.
And I agree, you've had no clutch hitting. Buster Olney of ESPN was saying the same thing the other day.
I'll make sure I polish the post before putting it up. Thanks for making me aware of the mistakes.
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