What's Wrong with the Yankees?
By Joe

I hate to talk about teams or players struggling in April because there's still 135 games to play in the regular season. Players are still finding their swing or getting comfortable on the mound. For example, Manny Ramirez is hitting .192. David Wright hasn't homered yet. Johan Santana has lost two in a row at home. These things won't keep up for much longer. Ramirez is going to clobber his 40 home runs, Wright will be close to a 30-30 threat and Santana will win 18 games with a low ERA and WHIP.

That said, if I'm a realistic Yankees fan I'm officially worried. My team has lost five of six games in the past week and a half to rival Boston and now trail the division leader by 6.5 games, has a patched-up starting rotation, a struggling bullpen and is dead last in the A.L. East. Sure, it's only April and the Yankees have the best offense in baseball. But we've already seen that hitting won't carry this team against decent competition. They're going to outhit some teams, no doubt. But when they face a Boston or Cleveland or Anaheim, teams with good pitching staffs, the Yankees can't counter.

Before Greg writes me a nasty email, let me say that I understand Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano are injured, that Chien-Ming Wang has just come off the DL and that right now if Brian Cashman looks out his window and sees you throwing a decent fastball outside Yankee Stadium, there's a 50/50 chance you could be in the rotation.

I get it. The rotation will get better. How much better is up for debate.

The biggest problem is that even a fully healthy New York staff isn't that impressive. It's ok, maybe even decent on a good day. But it's not going to be good enough for a seven-game playoff series. It's not good enough to matchup with a whole bunch of teams in either league and it's not good enough to beat Boston or Minnesota. Mark it down, this pitching staff will keep New York from making the playoffs.

In the past five years Mussina has been either very good or very average. In 2006, he recorded a 3.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, both outstanding numbers for any pitcher, especially a pitcher his age. But the two previous years Mussina had ERAs in the mid-4s. In 2003, he had a 3.40 ERA.

The point -- when Mussina comes back from the DL he could very well be an anchor for the Yankees staff. Or he could be the most overpaid 4.50 ERA-pitcher in the American League. At 38, Mussina is by no way a lock to put up great numbers like in 2006. I actually hope he does because he's my no. 4 starter on my fantasy baseball team.

I've already discussed the "ace" Wang, who I believe will regress this year. Usually pitchers don't do as well in their second full season because of more film, better scouting and opposing hitters recognizing tendencies. Let's say this: The Yankees MUST have Wang as good or better than last year if they want a chance to make the playoffs. If he struggles, the Yankees are cooked.

Andy Pettitte is similar to Mussina in that you're not sure what you're going to get. Two years ago Pettitte had an incredible 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on his way to a 17-9 record for Houston. But last year Pettitte struggled to a 4.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and finished just 14-13. At 35, the Yanks can't be certain how well their newly signed pitcher will fare. Looking at his career stats, Pettitte's 2005 season seems like more of an aberration than the norm. His ERA usually hovers around 4.00.

After those three, the Yankees rotation gets really murky. There are two spots left and zero good options. The choices are Pavano, rookie Phil Hughes (who may be sent back to Triple-A after his next start), Kei Igawa (yikes), and Jeff Karstens (who?).

That's your 2007 New York Yankees starting pitching staff. Does that look like a strong enough rotation to oust Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Anaheim, Detroit, Chicago or Oakland? Nope. What happens if Mussina, Wang and/or Pettitte struggle? What if all three regress from their 2006 seasons? As I mentioned, that's not an unlikely scenario looking at all three of their career stats. And you probably forgot that Pavano has had all of ONE good season, in 2004, under his belt. What if he stinks too?

With all those question marks, this staff is not only expected to help the Yankees make the playoffs, but also bring them out of the huge hole they are digging each day they lose.That's asking a lot of any pitching staff, especially one as average as New York's. (Just ask Philly fans how tough it is to recover from a poor start. Philadelphia has stunk out of the gate for three straight years.)

Even in an ideal situation, I don't like the Yankees chances. Assume Mussina, Wang and Pettitte combine for 48 wins (HUGE if). Hughes is a stud, much like Anaheim's Jered Weaver a year ago and wins 13. Pavano doesn't get injured and wins around 14. And Igawa or Karstens somehow gets them 12 wins too. They make the playoffs. Exactly who are they going to beat in the first round?

Not Minnesota, the Twins pitching is too good. Not Cleveland, the Indians pitching and hitting is too good. Not Anaheim or Detroit, each team has better pitching and bullpens. And certainly not Boston, who is the best team in the A.L.

Bottom line is that you can't win the World Series with an average pitching staff. The Yankees have a great, great lineup. But their staff is weak and has too many question marks.

Best-case scenario: the Yanks make the playoffs and lose in the Division Series. Worst-case scenario: the Yanks fail to make the playoffs, George Steinbrenner fires Cashman and A-Rod walks to free agency. Say what you want, but a starting rotation of Mussina, Wang, Pettitte, Pavano and Karsten/Hughes/Igawa isn't cutting it in October.

But Yankees fans needn't worry about their postseason rotation. Not because it's April, but because their team won't make it that far.